Looking at the results so far in primaries only (not including caucases) Sen. Clinton has done better than Sen. Obama in CLOSED or MODIFIED democratic primaries. Sen. Obama has done well in Open primaries for obvious reason (independents). Here are the results so far:
Closed/Modified primaries:
Sen. Clinton wins: New Hampshire, Florida, Arizona, California, New Mexico, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Oklahoma. (9 wins)
Sen. Obama wins: Washington DC, Maryland, Louisiana, Utah, Connecticut, and Delaware (6 wins)
(Washington DC, Maryland and Louisiana with large African American voters benefited Sen. Obama).
Open primaries:
Sen. Clinton wins: Michigan, Tennessee and Arkansas (3 wins)
(Michigan was not contested and Sen. Clinton benefited in Arkansas from her past ties)
Sen. Obama wins: Wisconsin, Virginia, Missouri, Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina (7 wins)
So majority of Sen. Clinton's wins come from Closed/modified primary states. Sen. Obama has done better in Open primary states.
What does it mean going forward? Here are the primaries going forward.
Date State Type Delegates Advantage
4-Mar Ohio Modified 161 Clinton
4-Mar Rhode Island Modified 32 Clinton
22-Apr Pennsylvania CLOSED 188 Clinton
6-May Indiana Modified 84 Clinton
6-May North Carolina Modified 134 Clinton
13-May West Viriginia Modified 39 Clinton
20-May Kentucky CLOSED 60 Clinton
20-May Oregon CLOSED 65 Clinton
2-Jun South Dakota CLOSED 23 Clinton
7-Jun Puerto Rico CLOSED 55 Clinton
Total delegate Advantage Clinton 841
4-Mar Vermont OPEN 23 Obama
4-Mar Texas OPEN 228 Obama
11-Mar Mississippi OPEN 40 Obama
3-Jun Montana OPEN 24 Obama
Total delegate Advantage Obama 315
The data shows that going forward Sen. Clinton has advantage over Sen. Obama if the pattern of winning in Closed/Modified primaries holds for Sen. Clinton. As there are only 4 open primaries left. Also, if Sen. Clinton can score a victory in Texas then she will have a significant advantage with the total wins and delegates. Time will tell.
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