MyDD :: Advantage Sen. Clinton (Open vs. Closed/Modified Primaries)

Advantage Sen. Clinton (Open vs. Closed/Modified Primaries)

by Opandora, Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 02:19:26 PM EST

Looking at the results so far in primaries only (not including caucases) Sen. Clinton has done better than Sen. Obama in CLOSED or MODIFIED democratic primaries. Sen. Obama has done well in Open primaries for obvious reason (independents). Here are the results so far:
Closed/Modified primaries:
Sen. Clinton wins: New Hampshire, Florida, Arizona, California, New Mexico, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Oklahoma. (9 wins)
Sen. Obama wins: Washington DC, Maryland, Louisiana, Utah, Connecticut, and Delaware (6 wins)
(Washington DC, Maryland and Louisiana with large African American voters benefited Sen. Obama).

Open primaries:
Sen. Clinton wins: Michigan, Tennessee and Arkansas (3 wins)
(Michigan was not contested and Sen. Clinton benefited in Arkansas from her past ties)
Sen. Obama wins: Wisconsin, Virginia, Missouri, Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina (7 wins)
So majority of Sen. Clinton's wins come from Closed/modified primary states. Sen. Obama has done better in Open primary states.

What does it mean going forward? Here are the primaries going forward.
Date    State    Type    Delegates    Advantage
4-Mar    Ohio    Modified    161    Clinton
4-Mar    Rhode Island    Modified    32    Clinton
22-Apr    Pennsylvania    CLOSED    188    Clinton
6-May    Indiana    Modified    84    Clinton
6-May    North Carolina    Modified    134    Clinton
13-May    West Viriginia    Modified    39    Clinton
20-May    Kentucky    CLOSED    60    Clinton
20-May    Oregon    CLOSED    65    Clinton
2-Jun    South Dakota    CLOSED    23    Clinton
7-Jun    Puerto Rico    CLOSED     55    Clinton
Total delegate Advantage Clinton    841

4-Mar    Vermont    OPEN    23    Obama
4-Mar    Texas    OPEN    228    Obama
11-Mar    Mississippi    OPEN    40    Obama
3-Jun    Montana    OPEN    24    Obama
Total delegate Advantage Obama    315

The data shows that going forward Sen. Clinton has advantage over Sen. Obama if the pattern of winning in Closed/Modified primaries holds for Sen. Clinton. As there are only 4 open primaries left. Also, if Sen. Clinton can score a victory in Texas then she will have a significant advantage with the total wins and delegates. Time will tell.

Tags: Clinton, Obama, Open primaries, Closed primaries (all tags)

Permalink :: 10 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Advantage Sen. Clinton (Open vs. Closed/Modifi (2.00 / 0)

Sorry I couldn't get the columns to line up.

by Opandora on Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 02:20:07 PM EST

Obama loses with registered democrats (2.00 / 1)

I agree. Obama is winning only because of open primaries and caucuses.

by rinis74 on Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 02:26:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Advantage Sen. Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Im sorry but there are certain states with closed primaries there that Clinton is not going to win. North Carolina, Oregon, and South Dakota will go for Obama.

by Toddwell on Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 02:26:44 PM EST

Re: Advantage Sen. Clinton (Open vs. Closed/Modifi (2.00 / 1)

Interesting...but I'm not sure this one data point matters so much.

For one thing, the race is shifting under our feet. Looks at how drastically Obama cut into Hillary's core demographics in recent states.

For another, this is a race about delegates. Will it matter if Hillary does well in these states if Obama keeps it close? Remember, Huckabee still racks up a win from time to time too.

by animated on Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 02:32:06 PM EST

Re: Advantage Sen. Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Isn't it great to have a candidate that appeals so much to Independents, since we likely will be facing John McCain? Coupled with Obama's GOTV capabilities with the base, we should vastly outperform polls against McCain, like we did in WI against Hillary.

by bigdcdem on Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 02:39:42 PM EST

Re: Advantage Sen. Clinton (2.00 / 1)

If all the primaries were unrestricted and open and if we did not have a race for republican nomination like in 2004, the republican machine can turn out their base to come and make even Mike Gravel the democratic nominee.

Democrats, Please stop republicans hijack our primaries in Texas. This is getting beyond a point.

by rinis74 on Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 02:49:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Advantage Sen. Clinton (none / 0)

There are two types of Independents.

Democratic leaning vs. Republican leaning.

Obama is doing well with Democratic leaning independents. ( the same independents who voted for Clinton, Gore & Kerry)

They may be more enthusiastic for Obama but they will have no problems voting for Hillary in the GE)

McCain is doing very well with Republican Leaning Independents. These people will vote Republican in many cases.

Its the Democratic base that will give Obama headaches in November.

Reagan Dems, Seniors, Latinos
& working class white women.

by labanman on Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 02:51:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Advantage Sen. Clinton (Open vs. Closed/ (none / 0)

California was not a closed primary. Independents were allowed to vote in the Democratic primary, but not in the GOP. And she still won because California is Clinton country.

by LakersFan on Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 03:37:30 PM EST

Re: Advantage Sen. Clinton (Open vs. Closed/ (none / 0)

California was a modified primary where candidate is suppose to affiliate with democrats for at least one day.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/CA-D.p html

Wisconsin for example is an open primary where no party affiliation is needed.

by Opandora on Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 05:31:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dis-Advantage Sen. Clinton (none / 0)

This very much confirms what many have feared: registered Democrats are not the ones nominating Obama to be the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party.

There are too many accounts of Republicans being told to cross over and vote for Obama to be ignored. They will not vote for him in the general election, because the whole point is to get rid of Hillary Clinton so Republicans can run against the weakest candidate. That the media has been complicit in this tactic is obvious and deplorable. My only hope is that, if an Obama candidacy is the disastor many of us fear it will be, Clinton will consider running again in 2012. That is, if we still have a country by that time.

by miriam on Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 03:49:09 PM EST

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